{
  "schema": "btc500/500-day-cycles@1",
  "generated": "2026-11-02T18:23:54.567Z",
  "site": "https://btc500.net",
  "page": "https://btc500.net/bitcoin-500-day-cycle",
  "citation": "BTC500 (2026). Bitcoin 500-day cycle dataset: T-500 to T+500 prices, drawdowns and entry-timing deltas for the 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024 halvings. https://btc500.net/data/500-day-cycles.json",
  "licence": "Free to cite with attribution to BTC500 and a link to the page above.",
  "method": {
    "rule": "Buy exactly 500 days before each Bitcoin halving and sell exactly 500 days after it.",
    "entry": "T-500 = the calendar day 500 days before the halving date. Halving dates are the protocol block heights (210,000 / 420,000 / 630,000 / 840,000).",
    "exit": "T+500 = the calendar day 500 days after the halving date.",
    "prices": "Daily close in USD, UTC calendar days, from BTC500's own archive. A missing day is returned as null rather than interpolated.",
    "drawdown": "lowVsEntryPercent = (lowest close in the window - the T-500 close) / T-500 close. maxDrawdownPercent = worst close-to-close fall from a running peak inside the window. Intraday wicks are not captured, so every drawdown here is a lower bound.",
    "timing": "The exit stays fixed at T+500 and the entry moves to T-500 + offset for offsets from -120 to +120 days. vsT500Percent compares that entry's T+500 multiple with the exact T-500 multiple (negative = worse than the published rule).",
    "caveat": "Four completed windows is a small sample. These are historical observations, not forecasts, and nothing here is financial advice."
  },
  "archive": {
    "firstDate": "2011-07-17",
    "lastDate": "2026-11-01",
    "rows": 5584,
    "source": "bundle"
  },
  "summary": {
    "completedWindows": 4,
    "risk": {
      "analyzedCount": 4,
      "belowEntryCount": 4,
      "allBelowEntry": true,
      "medianLowVsEntryPercent": -11.72,
      "medianDaysToLow": 84.5,
      "worstLabel": "2012 Halving",
      "worstLowVsEntryPercent": -83.65
    },
    "timing": {
      "cycleCount": 4,
      "offsets": [
        {
          "offsetDays": -120,
          "cycleCount": 3,
          "medianVsT500Percent": -32.48,
          "improvedCount": 0,
          "worsenedCount": 3
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -90,
          "cycleCount": 3,
          "medianVsT500Percent": -35.57,
          "improvedCount": 0,
          "worsenedCount": 3
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -60,
          "cycleCount": 3,
          "medianVsT500Percent": -24.54,
          "improvedCount": 0,
          "worsenedCount": 3
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -30,
          "cycleCount": 3,
          "medianVsT500Percent": -12.5,
          "improvedCount": 0,
          "worsenedCount": 3
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 0,
          "cycleCount": 4,
          "medianVsT500Percent": 0,
          "improvedCount": 0,
          "worsenedCount": 0
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 30,
          "cycleCount": 4,
          "medianVsT500Percent": 3.92,
          "improvedCount": 2,
          "worsenedCount": 2
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 60,
          "cycleCount": 4,
          "medianVsT500Percent": 4.91,
          "improvedCount": 3,
          "worsenedCount": 1
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 90,
          "cycleCount": 4,
          "medianVsT500Percent": -2.18,
          "improvedCount": 1,
          "worsenedCount": 3
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 120,
          "cycleCount": 4,
          "medianVsT500Percent": -14.39,
          "improvedCount": 1,
          "worsenedCount": 3
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "cycles": [
    {
      "label": "2012 Halving",
      "halvingDate": "2012-11-28",
      "entry": {
        "date": "2011-07-17",
        "price": 14.07
      },
      "halving": {
        "price": 12.5
      },
      "exit": {
        "date": "2014-04-12",
        "price": 420.66
      },
      "returnPercent": 2889.77,
      "multiple": 29.8977,
      "toHalvingPercent": -11.16,
      "drawdown": {
        "lowDate": "2011-11-22",
        "lowPrice": 2.3,
        "lowVsEntryPercent": -83.65,
        "daysEntryToLow": 128,
        "maxDrawdownPercent": -84.31,
        "maxDrawdownDate": "2011-11-22",
        "daysBelowEntryBeforeHalving": 491,
        "observedDaysBeforeHalving": 501,
        "windowClosed": true
      },
      "timing": [
        {
          "offsetDays": -120,
          "entryDate": "2011-03-19",
          "entryPrice": null,
          "vsT500Percent": null
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -90,
          "entryDate": "2011-04-18",
          "entryPrice": null,
          "vsT500Percent": null
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -60,
          "entryDate": "2011-05-18",
          "entryPrice": null,
          "vsT500Percent": null
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -30,
          "entryDate": "2011-06-17",
          "entryPrice": null,
          "vsT500Percent": null
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 0,
          "entryDate": "2011-07-17",
          "entryPrice": 14.07,
          "vsT500Percent": 0
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 30,
          "entryDate": "2011-08-16",
          "entryPrice": 11.77,
          "vsT500Percent": 19.54
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 60,
          "entryDate": "2011-09-15",
          "entryPrice": 5.92,
          "vsT500Percent": 137.67
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 90,
          "entryDate": "2011-10-15",
          "entryPrice": 4.1,
          "vsT500Percent": 243.17
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 120,
          "entryDate": "2011-11-14",
          "entryPrice": 3.08,
          "vsT500Percent": 356.82
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "2016 Halving",
      "halvingDate": "2016-07-09",
      "entry": {
        "date": "2015-02-25",
        "price": 237.38
      },
      "halving": {
        "price": 653.87
      },
      "exit": {
        "date": "2017-11-21",
        "price": 8114.13
      },
      "returnPercent": 3318.23,
      "multiple": 34.1823,
      "toHalvingPercent": 175.46,
      "drawdown": {
        "lowDate": "2015-08-24",
        "lowPrice": 210.09,
        "lowVsEntryPercent": -11.49,
        "daysEntryToLow": 180,
        "maxDrawdownPercent": -36.24,
        "maxDrawdownDate": "2017-09-14",
        "daysBelowEntryBeforeHalving": 92,
        "observedDaysBeforeHalving": 501,
        "windowClosed": true
      },
      "timing": [
        {
          "offsetDays": -120,
          "entryDate": "2014-10-28",
          "entryPrice": 351.56,
          "vsT500Percent": -32.48
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -90,
          "entryDate": "2014-11-27",
          "entryPrice": 368.45,
          "vsT500Percent": -35.57
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -60,
          "entryDate": "2014-12-27",
          "entryPrice": 314.57,
          "vsT500Percent": -24.54
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -30,
          "entryDate": "2015-01-26",
          "entryPrice": 271.29,
          "vsT500Percent": -12.5
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 0,
          "entryDate": "2015-02-25",
          "entryPrice": 237.38,
          "vsT500Percent": 0
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 30,
          "entryDate": "2015-03-27",
          "entryPrice": 247.15,
          "vsT500Percent": -3.95
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 60,
          "entryDate": "2015-04-26",
          "entryPrice": 218.51,
          "vsT500Percent": 8.64
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 90,
          "entryDate": "2015-05-26",
          "entryPrice": 237.5,
          "vsT500Percent": -0.05
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 120,
          "entryDate": "2015-06-25",
          "entryPrice": 242.48,
          "vsT500Percent": -2.1
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "2020 Halving",
      "halvingDate": "2020-05-11",
      "entry": {
        "date": "2018-12-28",
        "price": 3854.42
      },
      "halving": {
        "price": 8604.75
      },
      "exit": {
        "date": "2021-09-23",
        "price": 44980.9
      },
      "returnPercent": 1066.99,
      "multiple": 11.6699,
      "toHalvingPercent": 123.24,
      "drawdown": {
        "lowDate": "2019-02-07",
        "lowPrice": 3394.01,
        "lowVsEntryPercent": -11.94,
        "daysEntryToLow": 41,
        "maxDrawdownPercent": -61.28,
        "maxDrawdownDate": "2020-03-16",
        "daysBelowEntryBeforeHalving": 56,
        "observedDaysBeforeHalving": 501,
        "windowClosed": true
      },
      "timing": [
        {
          "offsetDays": -120,
          "entryDate": "2018-08-30",
          "entryPrice": 7024.15,
          "vsT500Percent": -45.13
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -90,
          "entryDate": "2018-09-29",
          "entryPrice": 6606.07,
          "vsT500Percent": -41.65
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -60,
          "entryDate": "2018-10-29",
          "entryPrice": 6292.65,
          "vsT500Percent": -38.75
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -30,
          "entryDate": "2018-11-28",
          "entryPrice": 4267.24,
          "vsT500Percent": -9.67
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 0,
          "entryDate": "2018-12-28",
          "entryPrice": 3854.42,
          "vsT500Percent": 0
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 30,
          "entryDate": "2019-01-27",
          "entryPrice": 3553.12,
          "vsT500Percent": 8.48
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 60,
          "entryDate": "2019-02-26",
          "entryPrice": 3809.21,
          "vsT500Percent": 1.19
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 90,
          "entryDate": "2019-03-28",
          "entryPrice": 4028.39,
          "vsT500Percent": -4.32
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 120,
          "entryDate": "2019-04-27",
          "entryPrice": 5256.98,
          "vsT500Percent": -26.68
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "2024 Halving",
      "halvingDate": "2024-04-20",
      "entry": {
        "date": "2022-12-07",
        "price": 16851.3
      },
      "halving": {
        "price": 64894.42
      },
      "exit": {
        "date": "2025-09-02",
        "price": 111190.18
      },
      "returnPercent": 559.83,
      "multiple": 6.5983,
      "toHalvingPercent": 285.1,
      "drawdown": {
        "lowDate": "2022-12-19",
        "lowPrice": 16422.56,
        "lowVsEntryPercent": -2.54,
        "daysEntryToLow": 12,
        "maxDrawdownPercent": -28.12,
        "maxDrawdownDate": "2025-04-08",
        "daysBelowEntryBeforeHalving": 18,
        "observedDaysBeforeHalving": 501,
        "windowClosed": true
      },
      "timing": [
        {
          "offsetDays": -120,
          "entryDate": "2022-08-09",
          "entryPrice": 23203.68,
          "vsT500Percent": -27.38
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -90,
          "entryDate": "2022-09-08",
          "entryPrice": 19322.78,
          "vsT500Percent": -12.79
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -60,
          "entryDate": "2022-10-08",
          "entryPrice": 19418.04,
          "vsT500Percent": -13.22
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": -30,
          "entryDate": "2022-11-07",
          "entryPrice": 20597.76,
          "vsT500Percent": -18.19
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 0,
          "entryDate": "2022-12-07",
          "entryPrice": 16851.3,
          "vsT500Percent": 0
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 30,
          "entryDate": "2023-01-06",
          "entryPrice": 16960.23,
          "vsT500Percent": -0.64
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 60,
          "entryDate": "2023-02-05",
          "entryPrice": 22946.29,
          "vsT500Percent": -26.56
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 90,
          "entryDate": "2023-03-07",
          "entryPrice": 22217.21,
          "vsT500Percent": -24.15
        },
        {
          "offsetDays": 120,
          "entryDate": "2023-04-06",
          "entryPrice": 28042.98,
          "vsT500Percent": -39.91
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}