# BTC500 — Complete Knowledge Base

> Live at https://btc500.net — Free Bitcoin halving countdown, cycle score, and investment tools built around the BTC500 strategy: buy exactly 500 days before each Bitcoin halving and sell exactly 500 days after.

**Site:** https://btc500.net
**Contact:** btc500halving@gmail.com
**X/Twitter:** https://x.com/btc500halving
**Instagram:** https://www.instagram.com/btc500halving
**Last updated:** 2026-08-27

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## 1. What is BTC500?

BTC500 is a simple, rules-based Bitcoin investment approach timed to Bitcoin's roughly 4-year halving cycle:

1. **Buy** Bitcoin exactly **500 days before** the next halving.
2. **Hold** through the halving.
3. **Sell** exactly **500 days after** the halving.
4. **Repeat** each ~4-year cycle.

The site is free educational software and market data tooling. It includes a live halving countdown, a Cycle Command Center with a cycle score, an investment simulator, a DCA-vs-lump-sum comparison, an interactive timeline, a bear-market bottom indicator composite, a futures liquidation dashboard, an SEC insider-trading dashboard, a crypto news feed, and free embeddable widgets.

**Nothing on this site is financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.**

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## 2. Key Facts: Bitcoin Halvings

| Halving | Date (approx) | Block height |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2012 Halving | 2012-11-28 | 210,000 |
| 2016 Halving | 2016-07-09 | 420,000 |
| 2020 Halving | 2020-05-11 | 630,000 |
| 2024 Halving | 2024-04-20 | 840,000 |
| **Next halving** | **~April 2028 (projected)** | **1,050,000** |

### How the halving works

- A Bitcoin halving cuts the block reward paid to miners **in half**.
- It happens automatically every **210,000 blocks** (~4 years).
- It reduces the new supply of Bitcoin entering circulation.
- Historically, lower issuance has coincided with major multi-year price cycles.
- The exact next-halving date depends on Bitcoin's average block time; BTC500 tracks live block height and estimates the countdown automatically.

### Bitcoin 500-day cycle (canonical explainer)

The named concept is the **Bitcoin 500-day cycle**: Bitcoin's historical performance from **500 days before** each halving (**T-500**) through **500 days after** it (**T+500**).

Canonical page: https://btc500.net/bitcoin-500-day-cycle

- T-500 is the BTC500 buy date. T+500 is the BTC500 sell date.
- Cycles are compared by lining those two dates up across 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 using the same daily price archive as the simulator.
- Historical performance is not a guarantee of future results. Four halvings is a small sample.
- Related pages: https://btc500.net/simulator · https://btc500.net/timeline · https://btc500.net/articles/btc500-strategy · https://btc500.net/articles/bitcoin-week-ahead

### BTC500 buy/sell windows

| Halving | Buy window (500 days before) | Sell window (500 days after) |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2012 | 2011-07-16 | 2014-04-12 |
| 2016 | 2015-02-24 | 2017-11-21 |
| 2020 | 2018-12-27 | 2021-09-22 |
| 2024 | 2022-12-06 | 2025-09-01 |
| Next (~April 2028) | Live on https://btc500.net/halving-dates (moves with block time) | Halving + 500 days |

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## 3. Frequently Asked Questions

### What is the BTC500 strategy?
The BTC500 strategy is a simple Bitcoin investment approach: buy exactly 500 days before each halving event and sell exactly 500 days after. This rules-based method is designed to capture historically strong parts of Bitcoin's roughly four-year halving cycle without day-trading or technical analysis.

### When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next Bitcoin halving is projected for around April 2028, when block height reaches 1,050,000. The exact date depends on Bitcoin's average block time. BTC500 tracks live block height and estimates the countdown automatically.

### When is 500 days before the next Bitcoin halving?
The BTC500 buy date is 500 calendar days before the next estimated halving. Because the event is triggered at block 1,050,000, that buy date moves if blocks arrive faster or slower than ten minutes. The live date is on https://btc500.net/ and https://btc500.net/halving-dates.

### How does the Bitcoin halving work?
Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). The block reward paid to miners is cut in half, reducing new Bitcoin supply issued each day. Scarcity from lower issuance has historically coincided with major multi-year price cycles.

### What happens to Bitcoin price after halving?
In each completed halving cycle since 2012, Bitcoin's price rose substantially in the 12–18 months after the halving before peaking and entering a new market cycle. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

### Is buying before a Bitcoin halving profitable?
Historically, buying roughly 500 days before each halving and selling 500 days after has been profitable in every completed cycle — including 2012, 2016 and 2020. The BTC500 simulator lets you backtest any amount against real historical prices.

### Is BTC500 free to use?
Yes. The countdown, simulator, timeline, bear-market indicators, liquidation dashboard, articles, and embed widgets are free. No account is required.

### Is this financial advice?
No. BTC500 is educational software and market data tooling. Nothing on the site is financial, investment, or trading advice.

### How much do I need to start using the BTC500 strategy?
There is no minimum. The simulator lets you enter any amount — from $100 to $1,000,000+ — and see how the same strategy would have performed across every halving cycle since 2012.

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## 4. On-Chain & Market Indicators Used by BTC500

### Bear Market Bottom Composite
BTC500's bear-market dashboard combines several on-chain and market metrics into a bottom indicator composite:

| Indicator | What it measures |
| --- | --- |
| **MVRV** (Market Value to Realized Value) | Ratio of market cap to realized cap; high values suggest overvaluation, low values historically mark bottoms. |
| **NUPL** (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) | Share of supply in profit vs loss; drives market psychology phases (hope, optimism, belief, anxiety, denial, hope again). |
| **Puell Multiple** | Ratio of daily miner issuance value to its 365-day moving average; extremes signal miner stress or capitulation. |
| **SOPR** (Spent Output Profit Ratio) | Whether coins moved on-chain are being spent at a profit or loss; read with 1 being neutral. |
| **MA200 weekly** | 200-week moving average, a long-term accumulation reference line. |

### Futures Liquidation Dashboard
- **Open Interest** — total value of open BTC futures contracts.
- **Funding Rates** — periodic payments between longs and shorts that signal positioning and market heat.
- **Long/Short Ratios** — aggregate trader positioning on major exchanges.

### Insider Trading Dashboard
- Parses **SEC Form 4** filings for insider buys vs sells.
- Flags patterns in corporate insider behavior.

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## 5. Article Summaries & Key Claims

### Bitcoin Crosses $80,000: Breakout or Bull Trap? (27 August 2026)
Bitcoin closed at $80,161.51 on 27 August 2026, a +27% move in nine sessions off the 18 August print of $64,680.71, breaking a ~2.5-month $60k–$68k base on the heaviest volume in 60 days (~$74.5B on 21 August). Structure is genuinely bullish: fresh 10/50 golden cross, 200-day SMA turning up from ~$68,981 after a four-month decline, MACD histogram at a 90-day high, price above the 10 EMA ($75,781.56), 50 SMA ($66,427.09), and 200 SMA ($69,224.09), VWMA ($74,119.26) confirming. The bear case is about entry, not trend: RSI(14) at 82.2 with a mild divergence, a vertical 9-session extension with no retest, and asymmetric 20-day Bollinger bands (upper $83,872 just ~4.6% away vs lower $55,549 ~31% below). Consolidated verdict: HOLD — maintain exposure with a hard stop on a daily close below $75,781 (10 EMA; reduce 30–40% if broken), do not start new longs at $80,161, scale new money 1/3 at $76k–$76.5k, 1/3 at $75k, 1/3 at $73.5k–$74k with stops below $72,500, size ~50% of mid-August (ATR expanded ~88% to ~$2,244), targets $83,872 (upper band) → $85,000 (trim 25–30%) → $90,000, and full-thesis invalidation on a daily close below the 200 SMA at $69,224. The official BTC500 buy date remains November 30, 2026 — the tape does not move the calendar. Not financial advice. https://btc500.net/articles/bitcoin-80k-breakout

### Is the Bottom for Bitcoin In? (21 August 2026)
Yes — the low is in the $54,000–$64,000 box. Closing print $58,566 on 30 June 2026 (~54% below the 6 October 2025 ATH of $126,198). Soft bull: box done, then flip $71,500 (weekly close or trade significantly above), then $78,000, then $82,000 (full bull above this line). 19–20 August smashed through summer resistances after Treasury buybacks and $1.1–$3B of short liquidations; 20 August close $73,033. Invalidation: weekly close back inside the box, especially below $64,500; weekly close below $58,566 ends “the bottom is in.” On-chain still does not look like 2018/2022 (MVRV 1.22, NUPL positive, Puell 0.74) — read as a shallower cycle, not a reason to wait for $29k. Official BTC500 buy date remains 30 November 2026. If the box was the low, that date is still early-bull. Not financial advice. https://btc500.net/articles/is-the-bottom-in

### Why Bitcoin Pumped? (August 19, 2026)
Living article first published August 19, 2026. Bitcoin jumped about 6–7% from the mid-$64,000s, reclaimed $68,000, and tagged ~$69,700–$69,749 before easing near $68,500. Ethereum reclaimed $2,000 (~$2,080, about +9%); Solana ~$81 and XRP ~$1.06 (about +6%). The fuse was the U.S. Treasury doubling long-end liquidity-support buybacks from $2B to at least $4B per operation (press release sb0607; effective Sept 9–Nov 4) after the 30-year yield hit ~5.33–5.34%. Yields then fell (~9 bp on the 30-year, ~6 bp on the 10-year). CoinGlass showed roughly $1.1–$1.4B of shorts liquidated in hours (~114,500 traders wiped out over 24h). Spot Bitcoin ETFs had already posted constructive inflows (~$486M on the week; later session reports of ~$189M led by IBIT); whales added ~43,000 BTC over 60 days (CryptoQuant/Bloomberg). The same day the White House hosted crypto and prediction-market CEOs (Coinbase, Ripple, Kalshi, and others) with SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig ahead of Thursday’s CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee. The SEC had proposed Regulation Crypto Assets on Aug 18 ($5M / $75M exemptions). July FOMC minutes (9–3 hold at 3.50–3.75%) were a same-day backdrop, not the morning catalyst. The official BTC500 buy date remains November 30, 2026. https://btc500.net/articles/why-bitcoin-pumped

### Bitcoin Casino Searches Surged 500%: What It Really Means
Google Trends data for the week of August 9–16, 2026 shows "bitcoin casino" search interest jumped roughly 500% and "bitcoin casinos" rose about 350%, while "bitcoin price" remained the #1 Bitcoin query. The article treats the casino-style breakout as an attention thermometer rather than an investment signal — retail curiosity about fast, leveraged Bitcoin activity historically clusters around exciting phases of the ~4-year halving cycle, but it does not forecast price. It separates gambling (with its house edge and liquidation risk) from the rules-based BTC500 approach (buy exactly 500 days before a halving, sell 500 days after), notes that several breakout entries were brand-specific marketing bursts, includes a responsible-gambling disclaimer, and reasserts the projections: next halving ~April 2028 at block 1,050,000 with the official buy date of November 30, 2026. BTC500 is not affiliated with any casino. https://btc500.net/articles/bitcoin-casino-searches
### SEC Cancels Regulation Crypto Vote: What It Means
The U.S. SEC cancelled its August 14, 2026 open meeting on Regulation Crypto Assets, citing an unforeseen scheduling issue and naming no new date. The cancelled vote was Chair Paul Atkins' first formal crypto rulemaking — a tailored offering regime for certain investment contracts, previewed March 17 as a startup exemption (~$5M / 4 years), a fundraising exemption (~$75M / 12 months), and a safe harbor once essential managerial efforts cease. Bitcoin is treated as a digital commodity under Atkins' taxonomy; the delay does not reclassify BTC or move the BTC500 buy date of November 30, 2026 (108 days from August 14). https://btc500.net/articles/sec-cancels-regulation-crypto

### Goldman Sachs vs BlackRock: The $2.25B Bitcoin Income ETF War
Goldman Sachs is acquiring NEOS, an ETF issuer running covered-call bitcoin income products, for $2.25 billion — expanding its derivative-powered ETF platform to about $130 billion in total assets and taking direct aim at BlackRock's BITA income fund (reported August 12, 2026). Income and staking products hold their bitcoin or ether rather than trading it, which reduces sellable float at a time when cumulative spot bitcoin ETF net inflows have reached $52.5 billion and daily inflows have run near 4x daily mining issuance. The institutional shift toward holding-style products is structurally supportive heading into the April 2028 halving, and it changes nothing about the BTC500 rule: buy exactly 500 days before on November 30, 2026. https://btc500.net/articles/goldman-vs-blackrock

### Bitcoin's Strongest Hands Are Back
The count of elite Bitcoin wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC hit a six-month high of 90 (as of August 11, 2026), a combined floor of 900,000+ BTC worth over $58 billion at current prices. Mid-sized whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) accumulated first and the largest wallets followed — the classic smart-money pattern. The strongest hands kept accumulating through the Coldcard exploit and the CLARITY Act delay; the signal is accumulation, not panic. https://btc500.net/articles/strongest-hands

### Bitcoin This Week (Aug 24–31): Jackson Hole & PCE
Recurring weekly outlook for August 24–31, 2026 (updated in place): Bitcoin enters near $77,000 after the 19–20 August breakout ended the $54k–$64k summer range (June closing low $58,566; ~$69,700 tagged August 19 on Treasury buyback news and a ~$1.4B short squeeze; $73,033 close August 20; >$3B total liquidations), with the confirmation ladder at $71,500 (traded through), then $78,000 and $82,000 — a soft bull until $82k flips; the July FOMC minutes confirmed the 9–3 hold with the three hike dissenters reading as an isolated minority (median year-end dot 3.8%); the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium runs August 27–29 (Kevin Warsh's marquee speech, theme "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy"); July Core PCE lands Friday with weekly options expiry; spot ETF flows were ~$850M last week, ~$1.1B month-to-date (~3.5x daily mining issuance); Thursday jobless claims; CLARITY cloture is September 15. The official BTC500 buy date remains November 30, 2026. The page pairs current market information with cycle context rather than generic news. https://btc500.net/articles/bitcoin-week-ahead

### The BTC500 Strategy
When to buy Bitcoin before the halving (T-500), whether that is the same as buying after the event, why the rule does not sell before the halving, and when T+500 is used as the historical exit. Not financial advice. https://btc500.net/articles/btc500-strategy

### Why BTC500 Exists
The most expensive mistake Bitcoin investors keep repeating is buying too early during bear markets. The BTC500 strategy was created to discipline entry timing around halvings. https://btc500.net/articles/why-btc500-exists
### Solar Eclipse and Bitcoin Halving — What Rare, Predictable Events Tell Us
The total solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 was predicted decades in advance by orbital mechanics — yet most people only searched for it when it was already happening (searches surged 600%). Bitcoin's halving follows the identical pattern: a rare, perfectly predictable event that most investors ignore until prices have already moved. The BTC500 strategy treats the halving the way an astronomer treats an eclipse — mark the date, follow the math, ignore the crowd. The next buy date is November 30, 2026. https://btc500.net/articles/solar-eclipse-bitcoin-halving

### NUPL / RUPL Guide
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) describes five phases of Bitcoin market sentiment, from capitulation (denial) to euphoria (belief). Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss (RUPL) normalizes it over the market cycle. https://btc500.net/articles/rupl

### The Consensus Bottom Is a Trap
When the entire market agrees on the same bottom target, that target loses its power. In 2022 the crowd was convinced $30,000 was the floor; Bitcoin fell to ~$16,000. Disciplined accumulation during bear markets beats waiting for a "confirmed bottom." https://btc500.net/articles/bear-market-accumulation

### What Is the CLARITY Act?
The CLARITY (Clear Legislation for Interpretation and Regulation of the Digital Assets) Act would split US crypto regulation between the SEC and the CFTC, giving the CFTC primary spot-market authority over digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum. https://btc500.net/articles/clarity-act

### Bitcoin's Volatility Has Nearly Disappeared
Deribit's DVOL collapsed near 35 as Bitcoin hovered around $65,000. Historically low implied volatility does not mean risk is gone; options markets and price compression can precede large moves. https://btc500.net/articles/bitcoin-volatility

### Coldcard & Lightning Exploits
Two back-to-back infrastructure incidents — an estimated ~$116M Coldcard seed-generation theft and BTCPay Lightning node drains — expose real self-custody risks for long-term Bitcoin holders. https://btc500.net/articles/bitcoin-infrastructure-exploits

### BIP-110 Rejection
Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-110 (reduced data temporary soft fork) failed after near-zero miner support and a stalled minority chain. The episode is a case study in Bitcoin governance. https://btc500.net/articles/bip-110-rejection

### Ondo Finance Tokenization
Ondo Finance is building compliant tokenization rails for Wall Street, from DTCC's first tokenized securities trades to 430+ tokenized stocks and $1B+ in volume, positioning itself as a bridge between traditional finance and on-chain finance. https://btc500.net/articles/ondo-finance-tokenization

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## 6. Tools & Pages

| Tool | URL | Purpose |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Home / Halving Countdown | https://btc500.net/ | Live countdown, Cycle Command Center, cycle score |
| Halving Dates | https://btc500.net/halving-dates | Full 2012–2028 schedule with buy/sell windows |
| Investment Simulator | https://btc500.net/simulator | Backtest BTC500 across all completed cycles; reinvest or repeat a stake; compare vs buy-and-hold |
| DCA vs Lump Sum | https://btc500.net/dca | Compare DCA vs lump-sum around buy/sell dates |
| Time Machine | https://btc500.net/timeline | Interactive replay of halving-cycle prices |
| Bear Market Bottom | https://btc500.net/bear-market | On-chain bottom composite (MVRV, NUPL, Puell, SOPR) |
| Liquidation Dashboard | https://btc500.net/liquidation | OI, funding rates, long/short ratios |
| Insider Trading | https://btc500.net/insider-trading | SEC Form 4 analysis |
| Bitcoin ETF Absorption | https://btc500.net/bitcoin-etf | ETF inflows in BTC vs miner issuance and the 500-day cycle |
| Crypto News | https://btc500.net/news | Aggregated Bitcoin & crypto headlines |
| Articles | https://btc500.net/articles | Strategy guides & on-chain education |
| Embed Kit | https://btc500.net/embed-kit | Free countdown / cycle-score widgets |
| About | https://btc500.net/about | Methodology, data sources, contact |
| Privacy | https://btc500.net/privacy | Privacy policy |
| Terms | https://btc500.net/terms | Terms of use / disclaimer |

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## 7. Notices & Access

- BTC500 is free educational software. Nothing is financial advice.
- Historical prices come from Bitstamp (public/btc-usd-max.csv).
- /embed pages are excluded from search indexes.
- Sitemap: https://btc500.net/sitemap.xml
- Robots: https://btc500.net/robots.txt
- Short index (llms.txt): https://btc500.net/llms.txt
- Pricing (free): https://btc500.net/pricing.md
- RSS: https://btc500.net/feed.xml