About BTC500

What the site does

The homepage tracks live block height and shows the next buy date, sell date, and block progress. The simulator backtests that same rule on Bitstamp daily prices for every completed cycle since 2012. Other tools cover DCA vs lump sum, the cycle timeline, liquidations, Bitcoin ETF absorption, insider filings, and strategy articles.

Methodology

A Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks. BTC500 subtracts 500 calendar days from the estimated next-halving date to get the buy date, and adds 500 calendar days after a known or estimated halving to get the sell date. The next-halving date is estimated from live block height and average block time; it will move as blocks come in faster or slower than 10 minutes.

Historical returns use Bitstamp daily closes. Completed cycles in the simulator are 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024; the 2024 window closed on 2 September 2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The 500-day cycle explainer also publishes what each window cost to hold and how much the exact T-500 entry date mattered: every completed window is re-run with the entry moved from 120 days earlier to 120 days later, keeping the T+500 exit fixed.

Data sources

• Historical BTC/USD prices: Bitstamp
• Live price: Binance, CoinGecko, Coinbase, and Kraken
• Block height: public Bitcoin blockchain APIs
• Insider filings: public SEC Form 4 data
• Bitcoin ETF flows: TFTC open series (SoSoValue aggregates and Farside issuer tables)

Who it is for

Self-directed Bitcoin investors who want a calendar rule they can audit. It is not for day-traders, leverage traders, or anyone looking for personalized financial advice.

Contact

Email btc500halving@gmail.com. Follow @btc500halving on X. Press and corrections welcome — we update articles when facts change.