2012 Halving
T-500
Jul 17, 2011
BTC @ $14
Halving
Nov 28, 2012
BTC @ $13
T+500
Apr 12, 2014
BTC @ $421
Stack
3,553.66 BTC
Annualized
+246% / yr
$50,000 → $1,494,883+$1,444,883
Bitcoin Halving Simulator
500-day cycle · BTC500
What would $50,000 have become if invested 500 days before a Bitcoin halving? The same question works for $500, $1,000, or any other amount. One rule: buy at T-500, sell at T+500.
$
$1K$1M
Capital
First cycle
Reinvested through every window · from 2012
$3.93B
$3,934,691,815
from $50,00078,694x on capital in+$3,934,641,815
4 completed cycles · $50,000 put in once, then left in the rule. Hypothetical backtest. Not financial advice.
Three ways to run the same cash
$50,000 from 2012. Reinvest is one stake rolling forward. Same $ each cycle is a fresh deposit every window. Buy-and-hold never sells until the last exit date.
Buy & hold
Never sold until the last date
$395.13M
7,903x · Jul 17, 2011 → Sep 2, 2025
How the stack grew
Every sell becomes the next buy. The line is cash sitting between windows — historically that meant missing some upside and skipping two bear markets.
Start
$50,000
End
$3,934,691,815
- 2012 Halving$1,494,88329.9x$50,000 in · Jul 17, 2011 → Apr 12, 2014 · 3,553.66 BTC
- 2016 Halving$51,098,57834.2x$1,494,883 in · Feb 25, 2015 → Nov 21, 2017 · 6,297.48 BTC
- 2020 Halving$596,317,81011.7x$51,098,578 in · Dec 28, 2018 → Sep 23, 2021 · 13,257.13 BTC
- 2024 Halving$3,934,691,8156.60x$596,317,810 in · Dec 7, 2022 → Sep 2, 2025 · 35,387.04 BTC
Every selected window
Buy date is 500 days before the halving. Sell date is 500 days after. About 1,000 days in the trade, then cash until the next buy if you are reinvesting.
+2890%
2016 Halving
T-500
Feb 25, 2015
BTC @ $237
Halving
Jul 9, 2016
BTC @ $654
T+500
Nov 21, 2017
BTC @ $8,114
Stack
6,297.48 BTC
Annualized
+263% / yr
$1,494,883 → $51,098,578+$49,603,695
2020 Halving
T-500
Dec 28, 2018
BTC @ $3,854
Halving
May 11, 2020
BTC @ $8,605
T+500
Sep 23, 2021
BTC @ $44,981
Stack
13,257.13 BTC
Annualized
+145% / yr
$51,098,578 → $596,317,810+$545,219,231
2024 Halving
T-500
Dec 7, 2022
BTC @ $16,851
Halving
Apr 20, 2024
BTC @ $64,894
T+500
Sep 2, 2025
BTC @ $111,190
Stack
35,387.04 BTC
Annualized
+99% / yr
$596,317,810 → $3,934,691,815+$3,338,374,006
What this amount bought
Same dollars, very different stacks. Later cycles start at a higher Bitcoin price, so the same cash buys fewer coins — which is why the 2012 window dominates a reinvested result.
| Cycle | Buy price | Coins bought | Sell price | Exit value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Halving | $14 | 3,553.66 BTC | $421 | $1,494,883 |
| 2016 Halving | $237 | 6,297.48 BTC | $8,114 | $51,098,578 |
| 2020 Halving | $3,854 | 13,257.13 BTC | $44,981 | $596,317,810 |
| 2024 Halving | $16,851 | 35,387.04 BTC | $111,190 | $3,934,691,815 |
Average completed-cycle multiple across all history on this site: 20.6x. Later cycles sit below that average. That is a fact about the past, not a forecast.
Most of a 2012 reinvest is the first window
Early Bitcoin produced the largest multiple. Skip 2012 and the same rule is still profitable in later windows — the dollar result just is not in the same league. Starting in 2016 instead of 2012 cuts this reinvested result by roughly 97%.
Cash between cycles is the point of the rule
After each sell date you are out until the next buy date. That historically covered the 2018 and 2022 drawdowns. It also means you do not own the coins in those gaps. Compare reinvest against buy-and-hold above if that tradeoff is the question you actually have.
Read the 500-day cycle explainerShare this backtest
The link keeps your amount, start year, and reinvest setting. The image is a snapshot of the path.
How the Bitcoin halving simulator works
This tool answers one question: what would $500, $1,000, or another amount have become if it was invested 500 days before a Bitcoin halving and sold 500 days after? That window is the Bitcoin 500-day cycle. The numbers are the same daily prices used across BTC500 — not illustrations.
The T-500 methodology
T-500 is the calendar day 500 days before a known or estimated halving. T+500 is 500 days after it. The simulator buys at the T-500 daily price and sells at the T+500 daily price when both exist. The price on the halving date is shown so you can see how much of the window happened before the event versus after it.
What the numbers represent
Reinvest answers “what if I started with this much and never took money out of the rule?” Same amount each cycle answers “what if I put this much to work in every window and pulled the result?” Buy-and-hold answers “what if I bought on the first buy date and sat until the last sell date?” A completed window needs both a buy print and a sell print. Incomplete windows stay out of the totals.
Limitations
Fees, taxes, and slippage are not included. Early-cycle prices depend on thin markets. Four halvings is a small sample, and later windows produced smaller multiples. A backtest cannot predict the next cycle. Treat this as a research tool, not financial advice.
Simulator questions
How the two modes work, why 2012 dominates, and what this page does not claim.
What does the BTC500 simulator calculate?
It backtests one fixed rule against historical Bitcoin prices: buy exactly 500 days before each halving and sell exactly 500 days after. You pick a dollar amount, a first cycle, and whether profits are reinvested or the same amount is used in every window.
What is the difference between reinvest and same amount each cycle?
Reinvest rolls the entire exit of one cycle into the next buy date. That is a single starting stake compounding across every selected window. Same amount each cycle invests a fresh copy of your number in every window and adds the results — closer to depositing the same cash each cycle and taking profits off the table.
Why is the 2012 cycle so much larger than later ones?
Bitcoin was cheap and the market was small. A 500-day window around the 2012 halving captured a much larger multiple than later cycles. Starting in 2016, 2020, or 2024 still uses the same rule — the dollar result is smaller because the entry price was higher. The simulator lets you switch start years to see that gap.
Does reinvesting beat buying Bitcoin and never selling?
Not always, and the comparison is on the page. Buy-and-hold from the first buy date to the last sell date stays in Bitcoin through every crash. BTC500 is in cash between sell and the next buy, which historically skipped the 2018 and 2022 drawdowns and missed whatever happened in those cash windows. Compare the three columns rather than assuming either path wins.
Are fees, taxes, and slippage included?
No. The numbers use historical daily prices only. Exchange fees, spreads, taxes, and the difficulty of placing large orders in 2011–2013 are not modeled. Treat the result as a backtest of dates and prices, not a brokerage statement.
Can this predict the next cycle?
No. A handful of completed halvings is a small sample. Later cycles have produced smaller multiples as Bitcoin matured. The next window can be better, worse, or fail. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and nothing here is financial advice.
What would $500 or $1,000 have become?
Use the starting-amount field or the $500 and $1,000 presets. The result is the same rule applied to that cash: buy 500 days before each selected halving and sell 500 days after, using historical daily prices. Change the first cycle to see how much of the dollar result comes from 2012 versus later windows.
Keep going
Compare entries, replay prices, or read the rule. Same dates, different jobs.
500-day cycle
How T-500 and T+500 are defined, with every historical window.
Time machine
Replay any day in the cycle instead of just the two endpoints.
The strategy
When the rule buys, when it sells, and what it does not claim.
DCA vs lump sum
See if spreading the buy around the same dates beat going all-in.
Historical prices from the on-site daily archive (CoinGecko from 2013, blockchain.info market price for the 2012-cycle dates before that). Fees, taxes, and slippage are not included. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The BTC500 strategy is a hypothetical backtest — not financial advice.