One mechanical Bitcoin rule · Two dated trades per cycle
No indicators, no narratives. Buy 500 days before the halving. Sell 500 days after. The dates are fixed; the chart is just the ride.
Trade the calendar, not the noise
Bitcoin 500-Day Cycle — historical performance from 500 days before each halving through 500 days afterBuy window opens Dec 04, 2026 — 77 days from now.
Free to use · No account · Calendar-fixed dates · Block + price data
What is the Bitcoin 500-day cycle?
BTC500 measures one window: 500 days before each Bitcoin halving through 500 days after it. The live countdown on this page is that window for the current cycle. The 500-day cycle explainer is the full methodology. Nothing here is financial advice.
When is 500 days before the next Bitcoin halving?
The BTC500 buy date is Dec 04, 2026 — 500 days before the next estimated halving on Apr 17, 2028. That date moves if Bitcoin blocks come in faster or slower than ten minutes. See every cycle date.
01 / The rule
The rule, step by step
One 500-day window around each Bitcoin halving. Buy at T-500, hold through the event, sell at T+500. Nothing needs interpreting — the calendar decides. The cycle explainer has the dates and prices.
Buy 500 Days Before
Set your buy order exactly 500 days before the next halving. The countdown above tells you exactly when.
See the halving scheduleHold Through Halving
Hold your position as the halving event passes. This is where the magic happens — reduced supply meets sustained demand.
Calculate your returnsSell 500 Days After
Exit exactly 500 days after halving. Lock in profits and wait for the next cycle. Rinse and repeat every ~4 years.
Watch the timelineBTC500 vs buy-and-hold vs monthly DCA
Same asset. Different rules. BTC500 is for people who want a cycle window they can audit — not a replacement for every strategy.
| Approach | Rule | Trades per cycle | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC500 | Buy 500 days before the halving, sell 500 days after | 2 | A dated window you can backtest |
| Buy and hold | Never sell | 0 | Maximum time in market |
| Monthly DCA | Buy a fixed amount every month | ~48 | Smoothing entry over years |
Compare lump-sum BTC500 dates against spreading buys on the DCA vs lump sum tool.
02 / The record
The rule has a history.
Every completed BTC500 window in the archive finished higher at T+500. Exact dates, exact prices, open assumptions. Start with the record, then make up your own mind.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. BTC500 is educational software, not financial advice.
04 / Put a number on it
What would $10,000 have done?
A quick look at the last completed BTC500 window. This is the useful kind of what-if: dated, simple, and impossible to mistake for a forecast.
Open the full simulatorIllustrative result
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Completed-window data is loading. Not a prediction.
05 / Choose your depth
Go deeper when you're ready
Every tool is free and instant. Start with the explainer, check the record in the simulator, or replay any day on the timeline.
Bitcoin 500-Day Cycle
The canonical explainer: T-500, T+500, and every completed window with real prices.
Investment Simulator
See exactly how much you'd have earned using the BTC500 strategy across every halving cycle since 2012.
Time Machine
Replay any day in Bitcoin's halving history. Watch prices evolve in real-time through an interactive timeline.
Strategy Articles
Deep dives into the BTC500 strategy, NUPL/RUPL indicators, on-chain analysis, and more.
Insider Trading Tracker
Monitor insider transactions at major crypto companies. See who's buying and selling.
Liquidation Dashboard
Track real-time crypto liquidations across exchanges. See where leverage is getting wiped out.
ETF Absorption
US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows in BTC, stacked against miner issuance and the 500-day cycle.
Bear Market Meter
On-chain bottom composite — MVRV, Puell, NUPL and more — feeding the Cycle Score.
DCA vs Lump Sum
Compare spreading buys and sells over days versus going all-in at BTC500 dates.
Embed Kit
Drop live countdown badges and cycle score widgets on blogs, newsletters, and dashboards.
Latest Articles
In-depth analysis and strategy guides.
Bitcoin 500-Day Cycle
How T-500 and T+500 are defined, what previous windows returned, and where the current cycle sits.
Bitcoin Crosses $80,000: Breakout or Bull Trap? (27 Aug 2026)
Bitcoin closed at $80,161 on 27 August 2026, +27% in nine sessions. Trend structure says bull but the entry at $80k says wait — pullback zone $74k–$76k, invalidation $69,224. BTC500 buy date is unchanged.
Is the Bottom for Bitcoin In? (21 August 2026)
Yes — the low is in the $54k–$64k box ($58,566 on 30 June). Bitcoin is in a soft bull after the 20 August squeeze. Confirmation is $71,500, then $78k, then $82k. The BTC500 buy date is still 30 November 2026.
Why Bitcoin Pumped? (August 19, 2026)
Bitcoin jumped about 6–7% on August 19, 2026, tagging ~$69,700 as Treasury buybacks, a $1.4B short squeeze, ETF inflows, and a White House crypto meeting hit at once.
06 / Skeptic's corner
Ask the hard questions
Quick answers about the BTC500 strategy, Bitcoin halving dates, post-halving price behavior, and the free tools on this site.
What is the BTC500 strategy?
The BTC500 strategy is a simple Bitcoin investment approach: buy exactly 500 days before each halving event and sell exactly 500 days after. This rules-based method is designed to capture historically strong parts of Bitcoin's roughly four-year halving cycle without day-trading or technical analysis.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The next Bitcoin halving is projected for around April 2028, when block height reaches 1,050,000. The exact date depends on Bitcoin's average block time. BTC500 tracks live block height and estimates the countdown automatically.
When is 500 days before the next Bitcoin halving?
The BTC500 buy date is the calendar day 500 days before the next estimated Bitcoin halving. Because the halving is triggered by block height (1,050,000), that buy date moves if blocks come in faster or slower than ten minutes. The live date is on the BTC500 homepage countdown and the halving-dates schedule.
How does the Bitcoin halving work?
Bitcoin halving occurs approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). The block reward paid to miners is cut in half, reducing new Bitcoin supply issued each day. Scarcity from lower issuance has historically coincided with major multi-year price cycles.
What happens to Bitcoin price after halving?
In each completed halving cycle since 2012, Bitcoin's price rose substantially in the 12–18 months after the halving before peaking and entering a new market cycle. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and the BTC500 strategy exists to capture this recurring post-halving window systematically.
Is buying before a Bitcoin halving profitable?
Historically, buying roughly 500 days before each halving and selling 500 days after has been profitable in every completed cycle — including 2012, 2016 and 2020. The BTC500 simulator lets you backtest any amount against real historical prices to see these returns yourself.
Is BTC500 free to use?
Yes. BTC500's countdown, simulator, timeline, bear-market indicators, liquidation dashboard, articles, and embed widgets are free. No account is required.
Is this financial advice?
No. BTC500 is educational software and market data tooling. Nothing on the site is financial, investment, or trading advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research.
What tools does BTC500 include?
BTC500 includes a live halving countdown and Cycle Command Center, investment simulator, DCA vs lump sum comparison, interactive timeline, bear market bottom indicators, futures liquidation dashboard, Bitcoin ETF absorption board, insider trading tracker, crypto news feed, strategy articles, and free embed widgets.
What is the average Bitcoin halving cycle length?
A full Bitcoin halving cycle spans roughly 4 years (approximately 210,000 blocks). The BTC500 strategy uses the 500 days before and 500 days after each halving as the buy and sell window, covering the historically strongest parts of each cycle.
How much do I need to start using the BTC500 strategy?
There is no minimum. The simulator lets you enter any amount — from $100 to $1,000,000+ — and see how the same strategy would have performed across every halving cycle since 2012.
See What $10,000 Would Be Worth Today
Enter any amount into the simulator and see how the BTC500 strategy would have performed across every halving cycle since 2012 — using real historical prices.
Data refreshes automatically. Halving estimate from Bitcoin block height · BTC price from Binance, CoinGecko, Coinbase & Kraken. Last reviewed 2026-08-15.