When to sell Bitcoin after a halving
The BTC500 rule sells exactly 500 days after each Bitcoin halving — no chart reading, no top-picking. Here is every historical sell date and the next one on the calendar.
The short answer
Under the BTC500 rule, you sell Bitcoin on T+500: 500 calendar days after the halving. The 2024 halving sell date was September 2, 2025. The next estimated sell date is August 24, 2029, 500 days after the projected April 11, 2028 halving.
Every BTC500 sell date
Buy at T−500, hold through the halving, sell at T+500. Each row uses the recorded halving date and the same daily price archive as the simulator.
| Cycle | Buy (T−500) | Halving | Sell (T+500) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 Halving (historical) | July 17, 2011 | November 28, 2012 | April 12, 2014 | +2890% |
| 2016 Halving (historical) | February 25, 2015 | July 9, 2016 | November 21, 2017 | +3318% |
| 2020 Halving (historical) | December 28, 2018 | May 11, 2020 | September 23, 2021 | +1067% |
| 2024 Halving (historical) | December 7, 2022 | April 20, 2024 | September 2, 2025 | +560% |
| 2028 Halving (estimated)Next | November 28, 2026 | April 11, 2028(est.) | August 24, 2029 | Open |
Result = price at T+500 vs price at T−500, before fees and taxes. Historical prices from the on-site Bitstamp archive. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Should you sell Bitcoin before the halving?
The rule does not sell before the halving. It buys at T−500, holds through the event, and exits at T+500. Selling early would break the fixed window, so the historical record would no longer describe the strategy you actually followed.
All 4 completed windows finished higher at T+500 than at T−500. The weakest completed window was still positive, which is why the rule waits through the halving instead of trading the headline.
That does not mean holding is right for everyone. It means the rule is internally consistent: the entry, the hold, and the exit are all defined before the trade. If you need the money sooner, or your risk tolerance is different, the calendar should not override that. Nothing on this page is financial advice.
Holding through the halving also means sitting through the drawdown. Before treating the hold as easy, see how far below the T-500 entry price each completed window traded.
The exit, in numbers
Computed from the daily archive at each cycle's exact T−500 and T+500 dates. No compounding, fees, or taxes.
Selling after the halving: common questions
When do you sell Bitcoin after a halving?
+
Under the BTC500 rule, Bitcoin is sold exactly 500 calendar days after the halving (T+500). For the 2024 halving on April 20, 2024, the sell date was September 2, 2025. For the next projected halving in April 2028, the estimated sell date is in August 2029 — the exact live date is shown at the top of this page and moves with the block-height estimate.
Should you sell Bitcoin before the halving?
+
The BTC500 rule does not sell before the halving. It buys 500 days before the event, holds through it, and sells 500 days after. Selling early would break the rule and make the historical comparison meaningless. Whether selling early is right for you depends on your own circumstances; this page is educational, not financial advice.
Has selling 500 days after the halving been profitable?
+
Every completed BTC500 window in the on-site archive finished higher at T+500 than at T-500. The 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 windows all closed positive. Four observations are a small sample and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Why 500 days after the halving?
+
Five hundred days is a fixed, auditable window. It is long enough to include the halving and most of the historical post-halving advance, and short enough to leave the later drawdown outside the trade. It is not an optimized top-picking signal.
What if the next halving date moves?
+
The next halving is triggered by block height 1,050,000, not a fixed calendar date. BTC500 estimates the date from live block height and the protocol schedule, then sets T+500 from that estimate. If the halving arrives earlier or later, the sell date moves with it.
Is T+500 the same as the Bitcoin cycle top?
+
No. T+500 is a fixed exit date, not a prediction of the highest price. In some cycles price was still rising at that point; in others the strongest months were already behind it. BTC500 publishes the date so the result can be checked, not so it can be treated as a top signal.
See what the full window did
Run any amount through every completed BTC500 window, from the December 7, 2022 buy to the September 2, 2025 sell.
Last reviewed October 21, 2026. Historical prices from the on-site daily archive. The next halving and sell dates are estimates based on block height. Not financial advice.