Is the 2026 Bear Market Over?
Has Bitcoin bottomed in 2026? Track 15 on-chain indicators and compare current values against every bear market bottom since 2011 to determine whether the 2026 bear market is truly over — or if more downside is ahead.
Generate a shareable image card summarizing all 15 on-chain indicators. Copy it to your clipboard and paste on X.
Tier 1 — Primary Signals
These 5 indicators have correctly identified every bear market bottom (2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022). When multiple Tier 1 signals fire together, it's the strongest evidence the bear market is over. Check how many are triggered now.
Market Cap / Realized Cap
Daily mining revenue / 365d MA
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss
Short-term holder MVRV
Drawdown from all-time high
Tier 2 — Confirmation Signals
Secondary indicators that confirmed Tier 1 signals at past bottoms. If these are also flashing, it adds conviction that the 2026 bear market has reached its end.
Realized HODL wave metric
Price / HODL bank
Spent Output Profit Ratio
Long-term holder MVRV
BTC supply currently in profit
STH unrealized P/L
LTH unrealized P/L
Tier 3 — Secondary Signals
Longer-term accumulation and HODLing signals observed at past bottoms. These provide supporting evidence but are less precise for timing the exact end of the bear market.
Long-term holder supply
Ratio of coin days destroyed vs created
Coins vaulted / total
1. Check the Composite Score — The score at the top shows how many on-chain indicators are in "bear market bottom zone." A score of 15+ means 2026 is showing the same capitulation signals that marked the end of previous bear markets (2011, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022).
2. Focus on Tier 1 First — MVRV, Puell Multiple, NUPL, STH-MVRV, and ATH Drawdown are the most reliable at detecting bear market bottoms. If these aren't in bottom zone, the 2026 bear market is probably not over yet.
3. Look for Confluence — The clearest bear market bottoms show 3+ Tier 1 signals + 2+ Tier 2 signals firing together. The more indicators triggered, the stronger the case that the bear market is done.
4. Click "View on BitView" — Each indicator links to its live chart on BitView so you can see the full historical context and judge for yourself whether 2026 has truly bottomed.
5. Historical Context — Each card shows the exact values recorded at past bear market bottoms. Compare today's 2026 values to see if we've reached the same capitulation levels — or still have further to fall.
Data from BitView • 22,582 charts analyzed • 15 key indicators tracked • Live 2026 data
Reference bottoms: Nov 2011 · Jan 2015 · Dec 2018 · Mar 2020 · Nov 2022